What your 401(k) advisor likely won’t tell you

The book makes some excellent points about 401(k)’s that are worth noting:

1. 401(k)’s were designed to supplement employer pension plans. When employers realized they could save buckets of money by offering only 401(k) plans, pension plans went by the wayside.
    
2. Not surprisingly, a whole new industry of “401(k) plan advisors” cropped up because advisors could make a bucket of money for putting these plans “under management.” These plans are structured to benefit the institutions and advisors who administer them and the government.  Not you.
    
3. The investment options are usually painfully limited, and the advisor available to you is around maybe once or twice year.  In some plans, you can change your investment allocation only once a year.
    
4. 401(k)’s lack liquidity.  If you access the money before you are 59-and-a-half years old, you pay a 10% penalty.  Sure, you can pull it out for medical emergencies, education or to buy a house.  But most people need it when they are unemployed or in some other financial crisis, which isn’t exempt from the 10% penalty.
    
5. Some employers won’t let you shut down your 401(k) unless you quit your job.
    
6. 401(k) investments are often limited to stock market investment choices and most people don’t have the expertise or the time to research the choices.  The stock market volatility can be a killer, and most people are fully exposed.
    
7. Employers can modify, suspend, or eliminate the company match anytime they want.
    
8. If you borrow against your 401(k) and your employment is terminated for any reason, you usually owe the money back in 90 days.  Or pay the taxes and penalty.
    
9. Administrative fees can easily exceed 3%. If you only take 2% off the top, it can cut your long-term return in half.  If hypothetically, if the administrator invests its 3% from your $8K contribution to your 401(k), in 40 years, the administrator would have more money.  Whose retirement are you funding?
    
10. You’re sold on this story:  Save money in your 401(k) now to get a tax benefit, and then when you retire, you’ll take money out in a lower tax bracket.  The story’s unlikely to be true.  First, I believe tax rates are going up.  But even if they don’t, you’ve likely lost all the deductions you had while contributing to the 401(k) like the deduction for mortgage interest, your dependents, and your 401(k) or IRA contribution.  Those have likely disappeared by the time you retire.
     
11. The government is ALWAYS your 401(k) partner. The bigger your account gets, the bigger the government’s share.  Whose retirement are you planning?
     
12. If you die owning a 401(k), your heirs could get as little as 27% of it after taxes.

  There is a better way.  Let’s talk.
 

Even a broken clock is right twice a day

Look at predictions this way:  It’s everyone’s chance to put their hat in the ring in the game of “I told you so.”  That’s all.  Somebody is going to get bragging rights at the end.  I often tell my clients that my crystal ball is as good as theirs.  I might be more educated or more experienced or more articulate about it, but it’s really just as good as anyone else’s.   Remember, past performance is not a predictor of future results.  Just because someone’s gotten it right in the past doesn’t mean that person gets it right this time around.

There are many folks out there saying the S&P is going to be up substantially within the next two years.  Time to throw all your money into the stock market, right?  Not so fast.  The last “secular bear markets”—that is, those extended periods of time since 1906 in which the market has ultimately been down from the beginning of that period to the end—have averaged about 15 years.  We’re about 10 years into this secular bear market.  Understand that even within secular bear markets, there are years that are “up” and there are opportunities to make money.  So, yeah, the markets might be up the next two years, but that doesn’t mean we’ve entered an official “secular bull market”—that is, an extended period of time in which the markets are up.  And we won’t know that until we’re officially into it, which takes 20/20 hindsight years from now.

What almost all bear markets have in common is volatility.  You have to manage volatility.  It’s a silent killer on portfolios.  Go back to your plan.  Make adjustments according to that plan.  Do your best not to lose money and don’t be greedy.  You don’t need to capture the top of the market to meet financial planning goals at risk of a significant drop.  Balance your allocations, reduce your volatility, and even out your returns so that you ultimately meet those financial goals over time.

What are your options?

     The stock market is not inherently a bad place to be.  Like every investment, it has a risk-reward trade-off.  You must decide how much risk you’re willing to take.  In the last several years, many people have re-evaluated for themselves what that means.  First things first:  figure out what kind of investor you are.

     Then, consider other options besides the stock market if you can.  If the better part of your savings is in your 401k at your employer, you’re most likely stuck with those investment options.  But if you have cash on the sidelines or you have IRA monies from previous employers, you have more options.  People think of the stock market because it’s what most publicized and most accessible online.  However, there are other pretty interesting and pretty great options in the insurance and real estate worlds where your returns might be greater and your risk perhaps lower.  You might consider these other opportunities.