Pick a date!

You can’t predict the future, but you need to start somewhere. Retiring at 65 is no longer the default. Your target age should stem from your values, so revisit or define them.

Ten years out

This is a time to get a reality check on your financial life and start to envision what retirement will be like.

• Time to take a basic retirement planning class. Look to your local community college, retirement system pension planners, or professional organizations. You’re not trying to become an expert or nail down your plan. But you are trying to figure out what you need to know and what you need to think about.
• How much money have you saved in a 401(k), 403(b) or other retirement account?  Do you need to save more?  Will you need to work longer?  Do you need to adjust your allocations to make them more aggressive or (more likely) conservative
• Will you get a pension? When will you reach the vesting requirements?  How much will you receive? How will it be paid out? In a lump sum, monthly, etc.?)
• Do you have a copy of your Social Security statement? How much can you expect to receive?
• What other assets and investments can contribute to your retirement? Are there any potential drains on your income?
• Start having conversations with your close friends and family members about your vision for your “retirement.”  How do you want to spend your time?  What skills might you want to keep using in part-time or volunteer work?

 Five years out

• Revisit the questions from 10 years out.
• This is a good time to start a journal. Take some of those daydreams you put away and make them more specific. For example, rather than “spend time with grandkids,” you might write “spend two dinners a week with grandchildren.”

 Two years out (or less)

Time to get serious.

1. Make sure your partner/spouse is involved, if you have one and they aren’t already. Communicate and negotiate with them about how you expect to spend your days and money.
2. Hire a financial planner if you haven’t already done so. You want a fiduciary. The Financial Planning Association is a great place to find one.
3. Create a realistic budget. Figure out if you’ll need to work for income or where you may need to cut back on expenses.
4. Figure out when you’ll take Social Security, whether and when you will sign up for Medicare, etc.
5. Turn that “stake in the ground” into a real retirement date. Put a date in the calendar to retire, whether you share this with your employer or not.
6. Get more specific about how you’ll spend your newly found time.

 I often say it’s not about the plan, it’s about planNING. Life happens. Mid-flight corrections are necessary, and you can’t schedule those.  But following this schedule will help minimize the changes and the surprises.

Take the pressure off!

You do not have to have all of the answers now, so start by separating the financial part from the how-to-pass-the-time part. I often tell clients who are “stuck” on how to begin planning for retirement to focus on the first three years and then on the last three years. This takes the stress out of a big question like, “What the heck am I going to do for 20-30 years?!”

For the first three years, write down the collection of projects you want to get done. This often leads to a very satisfying feeling of purpose and direction. It’s like you’re still working, but you’re working on the stuff you want to work on and have been putting off. I’ve had clients travel for a year, remodel homes and take care of grandchildren, to name a few.

Then write down your ideal last three years, which are also usually easy to envision. These are typically slower, easier, quieter. This part also comes with specifics, such as:

• where you’ll live,
• who you’ll rely on for companionship and support,
• how you’ll want to manage your physical slow-down,
• how you want to be cared for and who will take care of you, and
• how you’ll feel at the end of each day

This process helps you figure out how much money or assets you need to set aside to meet these criteria, which will help build the financial part of your retirement plan.

Now for the years in between. I recommend making a list of the skills you want to keep using. This will likely have far fewer specifics than the first or last three years. That’s fine. For instance,

• I’ve had teachers that want to continuing teaching, so they consider tutoring.
• Those leaving executive positions find there are all kinds of nonprofit boards looking for expertise in leadership, development and managing a budget without having to manage employees.
• Some people enjoy mentoring others and find places to create those relationships.
• Talk to others who have retired. Keep your networks going with people who are or are not in the workforce. You don’t need to know exactly what you want to do, but it’s helpful to identify those skills of which you are most proud, most willing to “give away,” and most likely to energize and satisfy you.

In my experience, most people take two to three years to settle into a “retirement groove.” They tackle all of their projects early on, then they hit the end of that list and it takes a while to figure out how to spend their days. Even those who have done a “whole lotta nothin’” in the first year of retirement realize they want to make a change in how they spend their time. This is typical and normal. I also find it takes two to three years for the budget to work itself out. Rest assured, both how to spend time and how to spend money do work out. And both begin with figuring out how to spend the first three years and how to spend the last three years.

A little education can go a long way

It should be no surprise to you if you’re following this blog that I’m not a fan of 401(k) plans.  Most of my clients have them, though.  They need help identifying the best funds, and they need a way to manage those funds.  As you also have probably gathered, I’m a big fan of not losing money and taking advantage of opportunities to make money. 

Time for shameless self-promotion.  If you want to know if you’re in the best performing funds in your 401(k), and if you want to have some guidance as to when you should be taking advantage of the best times to make money in the markets, you ought to check out this tool:  http://lanning.mutualfundmarketalert.com/. Please fill out the sign-in form and watch the video.  I don’t spam.  I don’t sell my database to anyone at any time for any price for any reason.  You may have limited options with your 401(k).  The least you can do is make the most of them.

You can have confidence managing your 401(k)

When I meet my clients with 401(k)s for the first time, most of them have no idea why they chose the funds they did, have no idea whether they’re in the right funds, and have no idea what to do next. So they have done nothing for years and are continuing to do nothing. This does not have to be you. Here’s a game plan for you:

•   Get out your last statement.  Since it’s not been so scary to open it lately, you might actually know where it is.  

•   Check out:  http://lanning.mutualfundmarketalert.com/. It’s the best tool I’ve seen so far to make managing a 401(k) easy.  It’s an educational tool. That’s all. But it might help.  

•   When I tell clients to talk to their 401(k) administrator about their plan, I get either a blank stare or the somewhat rhetorical questions, “yeah, who is that?”  Your company does have a 401(k) administrator somewhere.  Find that person.  

•   Ask the administrator these questions: 
     o   May I please have the list of funds in which I can invest?
     o   How often can I change my allocation?
     o   How do I change my allocation?
     o   Are there any penalties for changing allocations?  

•   Implement the Mutual Fund Analyzer tool. Follow the signal. Make your adjustments. 
 

This is simply an educational tool that might allow you to catch the upsides of more of the markets. You won’t catch the highs and you won’t necessarily miss the lows.  But that’s better than blowing with the volatile wind of this bear market.  And, if you can make some money in the meantime, all the better.

I had to laugh the other day, though, when a post requested a referral to a financial planner who “could explain all the options for paying for college that people use.”  This person wanted unbiased advice and essentially the a la carte menu of possibilities. That would be a little like me walking into the paint store and saying, “I just want to see all the colors people use to paint their walls.”  Have you ever seen how many colors there are, how many different shades of the same color, and how many brands of paints?  That’s before you get to oil or acrylic.  Don’t get me started on brushes. And have you ever taken a sample of favorite paint home from the store, put it on the wall and hated it?  This original poster would have been better off with a survey.

Your advisor should advise YOU.

Here are the many ways I’ve seen college get funded:

• Kid decides not to go to college or not to go right away.
• Kid decides to live at home and attend two-year college.
• 529 plans.
• Paying out of income as the child goes to college.  In other words, not using savings at all.  (Heck, in one instance, the family’s annual tuition expense went down when the kid left a private high school and went to a state university and the family bought a new car.)
• Brokerage and investment accounts.
• Grandparents or other family members paid for it.
• Scholarships.
• Work-study programs.
• Loans.  (Remember, you can borrow for education but not retirement)
• Life insurance cash values.
• Investment properties (either selling them or using rental income).
• Inheritances and inheritance advances.

I could go on.  My point is that there is no right way to do this, you need someone who can listen to you, understand your values and know who you are, and help you navigate among the many options with a presentation of the beauties and pitfalls of each. That’s what good advisors do:  they listen well, they have opinions, they articulate them, and help their clients come to their own decisions about their financial lives.  This is why good advice is worth it.  It saves you time, money, anguish and agony.  A strategy for college funding is not always easy to just paint over.  Make sure you get as good of a look as you can at the start.

As home loans get harder to obtain, the number of renters increases, and so will rent

Come October 2011, buyers’ purchasing power is will reduce even further:

• The FNMA (Fannie Mae) loan limit will be reduced from $729,000 to $625,500, pushing more buyers into jumbo loans for which there are fewer lenders and consolidators.

• Jumbo loans require 6-12 months of reserves, which is more than FNMA requires.

• Interest rates will likely rise, making qualifying for a loan even harder.

• Mortgage insurance for FHA loans will increase by 30% in April 2011.

• Credit scores are on the decline.

• As home equity has vanished, buyers who want bigger homes will not have the equity from the sale of their current home to put toward the new purchase, which will likely require a 30% down payment.

What does this means?  More people staying in their homes, more people unable to qualify for a loan, more people renting instead of buying.  This is all true before we get to the conversation of the recurring suggestions in Congress that the mortgage interest deduction should be reduced or eliminated.  There are times when it’s good to be a landlord. This is one of them.  And, yes, we do investment property loans, too.  Give us a call.

Diversify strategies and build in flexibility

Evening out the swings in income and work-flow in business takes practice, patience, strategy, and intentionality.  Business owners should always be marketing, even when they’re busy.  They should either do it themselves or delegate it to an employee. Business owners should always be “working” on the business they brought in (again, either themselves or by employees). This evens out income and it evens out work-flow.  It takes time to make this the culture of one’s work day and one’s business. Then, on top of that, there’s the hard decisions of how much to set aside in boom times for leaner years.  Is the money best saved or reinvested in the business? All these challenges are on-going in business. Been there, done that, still doing it. The balance and the planning have to be intentional.

The same is true for your portfolio.  We use a platform that allows our clients to take advantage of the brain trust of those with PhDs and master’s degrees to determine how their money should be invested based on their philosophy(ies) and willingness to take risk.  Notice I used “philosophy(ies).”  This platform allows my clients to employ different money managers with different philosophies all at the same time. Because, let’s face it, the market is going to do what the market is going to do, and every money manager has an opinion about what you should do as a result, from “buy and hold” to “stay in cash and actively manage investments for positive returns.”  Just as in business, as in portfolios – sometimes there are tough decisions to make along the way, but if one builds in different strategies and provides flexibility for money to grow, chances increase that one will reach investment goals that serve their lives. When the time comes to make changes, changes can be made easily and with unbiased advice.

While I can’t help you directly with the business decisions, I can refer you to people who can.  And if you want to talk portfolios, please give me a call.

A better economy usually means higher rates

Remember, this is a blog—oversimplification will prevail.

Lesson #1:  Rates are driven by the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market.  MBSs are more similar to bonds than stocks.  Money managers who have to produce returns for their clients invest in stocks (more risky but higher returns) and bonds (less risky but lower returns).  When money managers think companies will produce higher stock returns, they invest in stocks. When the economy shows signs of improvement, company stock prices tend to rise.  So, said another way, when the economy shows signs of improvement, that generally means stock prices will rise, which will cause money to flow to stocks and not bonds (or MBSs).

Lesson #2:  When bond prices decrease, mortgage interest rates worsen.  A bond’s price and its yield are inversely related. That means that when the bond price goes down, the yield goes up (and vice-versa).  Mortgage interest rates track with the yield.  So, as bond prices go down, the yield goes up, mortgage interest rates go up.  The price of a bond will go down when there’s less demand for it.  If money flows to stocks, that means it moves away from bonds.  As bonds are in lower demand, the price will drop, and the yield will increase.  Remember, mortgage interest rates track to the yield.  To review: the less demand for bonds (or MBSs), the lower the price, the higher the yield, the higher mortgage interest rates will go.

The Million Dollar Question: Will the economy improve that much this year?  This is where my crystal ball gets fuzzy.  I think the nightmare of the financial crisis of 2008 is over.  We’re stabilizing.  High unemployment is a problem, and I see it getting slightly better.  I’m a believer that the consumer tends to drive the economy and if they have money to spend, the economy picks up.  I’m a believer that until we start to support the small business person, who employs most of the people in this country, unemployment will remain stagnant and the recovery will be sluggish.  The Fed’s quantitative easing (QE2) and the financial stability of the European countries are the wildcards here.  Given all that, I’m predicting that the economy has a good year and rates will increase a bit to 5.5% on the 30-year.

And by the way, let me put this back into perspective for you.  5.5% is still historically pretty doggone good.  So, if you’ve been “left out” of this past year’s refinance opportunities, this will still be a great year to get it done.  Give us a call.

What your 401(k) advisor likely won’t tell you

The book makes some excellent points about 401(k)’s that are worth noting:

1. 401(k)’s were designed to supplement employer pension plans. When employers realized they could save buckets of money by offering only 401(k) plans, pension plans went by the wayside.
    
2. Not surprisingly, a whole new industry of “401(k) plan advisors” cropped up because advisors could make a bucket of money for putting these plans “under management.” These plans are structured to benefit the institutions and advisors who administer them and the government.  Not you.
    
3. The investment options are usually painfully limited, and the advisor available to you is around maybe once or twice year.  In some plans, you can change your investment allocation only once a year.
    
4. 401(k)’s lack liquidity.  If you access the money before you are 59-and-a-half years old, you pay a 10% penalty.  Sure, you can pull it out for medical emergencies, education or to buy a house.  But most people need it when they are unemployed or in some other financial crisis, which isn’t exempt from the 10% penalty.
    
5. Some employers won’t let you shut down your 401(k) unless you quit your job.
    
6. 401(k) investments are often limited to stock market investment choices and most people don’t have the expertise or the time to research the choices.  The stock market volatility can be a killer, and most people are fully exposed.
    
7. Employers can modify, suspend, or eliminate the company match anytime they want.
    
8. If you borrow against your 401(k) and your employment is terminated for any reason, you usually owe the money back in 90 days.  Or pay the taxes and penalty.
    
9. Administrative fees can easily exceed 3%. If you only take 2% off the top, it can cut your long-term return in half.  If hypothetically, if the administrator invests its 3% from your $8K contribution to your 401(k), in 40 years, the administrator would have more money.  Whose retirement are you funding?
    
10. You’re sold on this story:  Save money in your 401(k) now to get a tax benefit, and then when you retire, you’ll take money out in a lower tax bracket.  The story’s unlikely to be true.  First, I believe tax rates are going up.  But even if they don’t, you’ve likely lost all the deductions you had while contributing to the 401(k) like the deduction for mortgage interest, your dependents, and your 401(k) or IRA contribution.  Those have likely disappeared by the time you retire.
     
11. The government is ALWAYS your 401(k) partner. The bigger your account gets, the bigger the government’s share.  Whose retirement are you planning?
     
12. If you die owning a 401(k), your heirs could get as little as 27% of it after taxes.

  There is a better way.  Let’s talk.
 

Choose a planner that put his/her attention on tax planning

Remember my beliefs.  The first one is that retirement savings and planning depends on you, you, and you (as opposed to the government, your employer, and you).  The second one is that you’ve got to keep your eye on market volatility, inflation/deflation (even if only medical expenses inflation), and TAXES.  Taxes could potentially be your biggest expense in retirement.  If you’re not diversifying your investments to provide tax-free income in retirement, you’re missing out on an opportunity to save on that expense and therefore have more money to spend in retirement.

Here are the Cliff Notes (remember Cliff Notes?):

1. As investors accumulate retirement assets, they should put money in three buckets: one that’s tax-deferred, one that is tax-free, and one that is taxable for savings and investments outside tax-advantaged accounts.
    
2. Investors often can stretch their retirement dollars further if they have the flexibility to manage distributions in a tax-efficient way.  This is a process that must begin in the accumulation phase.
    
3. Directing money to tax-free accounts can be the most challenging and needs to start early.
    
4. In the example given, because the couple was able to draw money from a variety of sources, the couple had $120K in retirement income and was able to keep an effective 7.7% tax rate and also realized these potential benefits: they will qualify for lower Medicare Part B premiums, potentially qualify for the lower capital gains tax, and improve their ability to deduct health insurance and/or long-term care premiums.
    
5. If cash is king, flexibility is queen:  A tax-diversified retirement portfolio gives investors more flexibility to deal with unknowns like changing tax rates and the potential means testing for Social Security and Medicare benefits. 

See, I’m not the only one who says these things.